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End of pain for spain
By Gary Lineker


Our resident expert assesses every team’s Euro 2008 chances and, after Greece shocked everyone by winning Euro 2004, predicts another surprising outcome this summer


Spain have been the great under-achievers in international football along with England. But I believe while John Terry and Wayne Rooney are on their summer holidays, Spain’s finest can put their reputation to rest by winning Euro 2008.

England have suffered 42 years of hurt since winning the World Cup but for Spain it’s even longer. They haven’t won anything since 1964 when they won the Euros on home soil. But with top-quality on the field throughout the squad from Iker Casillas and Pepe Reina in goal to David Villa and Fernando Torres up front, they will never have a better chance than in Austria and Switzerland this summer.

And I think their triumph will be good for football because it’s always good to see free-flowing, entertaining football come through. When you have Cesc Fabregas and Torres in the same team, I can’t see how Spain can be anything but attractive.

Spain have been called bottlers at past tournaments but that’s unfair – I think the reason they haven’t won anything is because they haven’t been quite strong enough. It’s certainly not the case this time, and if they get through to the latter stages I’m sure they will have the mental strength.

After all, their champions in other sports like Rafa Nadal and Fernando Alonso are noted for being great competitors, so there is no reason to think their footballers aren’t the same.

Certainly when you look at players like Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos, who has had an outstanding season, or Barcelona’s Xavi, you don’t see people will wilt at a challenge.

So, even though Germany have a better draw in the weaker half of the tournament, it’s Spain for me. And having played there for Barcelona, I would be delighted to see them break their barren run. It might even encourage England to do the same at the 2010 World Cup!

It will be strange to cover a major tournament without England or any other British or Irish interest. But I think there will be enough star quality – Cristiano Ronaldo, Torres, Miroslav Klose, Thierry Henry, Luka Modric – for people to get into the tournament.

You can see Liverpool fans cheering on Spain because of Reina, Alvaro Arbeloa, Xabi Alonso and Torres; United fans might want Portugal to lift the trophy because of Ronaldo; Arsenal will follow France. Chelsea supporters will have a wide choice with Petr Cech, Ricardo Carvalho and Michael Ballack there, to name but three.

There are so many Premier League stars in action, I think it will capture a lot of interest. 19 million people in Britain watched the last World Cup final between France and Italy, which shows we are a sports-mad nation who do look out for major events regardless of whether we’re in them.

Group C with France, Italy, Holland and Romania looks particularly tasty in the early stages. And the one good thing about England not being there is at least we won’t get all hyped up only to be let down at the end!

Portugal must be favourites in Group A and I’ll be interested to see if Ronaldo can carry the team a little bit like Diego Maradona did with Argentina in 1986 – although I have to be honest and say that Argentina side was a bit stronger all-round than this Portugal team.

The Portuguese still have a lot of experience with players like Carvalho but I wonder if they will suffer because they can’t rely on the likes of Luis Figo after turning to him for a decade or more. People are saying Ronaldo needs to prove himself at a big international tournament but I think that’s very unfair. He was outstanding in helping Portugal reach the Euro 2004 final and although his antics irritated us at the last World Cup, he was brilliant again.

He has curbed some of his instinct to go down easily at Manchester United and it will be interesting to see if he puts his Portuguese hat on at the Euros. I hope not, and you have to remember that he does get kicked more than anyone else. He is already one of the best three players in the world alongside Kaka and Lionel Messi: his next challenge is to be regarded as one of the best of all time and to do that he must win either the World Cup or the Euro.

As a player, I think he has absolutely everything you want. He is unbelievably quick, big, strong, and as skilful as anyone around. His match intelligence has improved: he knows when to play a simple pass, when to run at defenders. And he’s brilliant in the air as well!

There is no other player in the world who has got that range. I love Messi to bits, but he can’t do what Ronaldo can do.

Ronaldo has stamina too. If he doesn’t get injured he will have all the makings of being one of the greatest ever players. He is certainly the outstanding individual at Euro 2008 but despite him, and Luiz Felipe Scolari who is a great character, I am not sure Portugal will be able to go all the way.

I think Portugal will qualify from Group A though. Scolari has bags of experience and commands respect. He will get a lot of offers from club sides after Euro 2008 and I think if he’d been the England manager after Sven-Goran Eriksson rather than Steve McClaren, he would have dragged us to the finals.

The Czech Republic will also qualify from Group A. I don’t think they are as good as the side that were probably the best team at Euro 2004, with their players a bit past their prime. But they still have Jan Koller as a target man up front and the best goalkeeper in the world, Petr Cech.

We know Switzerland will be dour but tough to beat. They didn’t lose a match at the World Cup but every game seemed to be 0-0! Funnily enough, being at home might put pressure on them to be a bit more attacking which could work against them.

Turkish club sides have done well in Europe in the past couple of years. Their football is definitely improving and we know their players have always had good technical ability. Their problem will be scoring enough goals. If anyone is to change that, it will be Tuncay Sanli who has done enough at Middlesbrough this season to show he is a good player, if not a great one.

Germany aren’t just favourites in Group B, they are favourites for the whole tournament. I think that might be history speaking more than anything else.

They didn’t win the World Cup on home soil a couple of years ago so you can’t say they are shoo-ins this time, although they will have a lot of support in this tournament which is on their border.

I think Jurgen Klinsmann did really well as manager in 2006 and Joachim Loew will carry that on. They looked the fittest team at the last World Cup and played a more cavalier style than we’re used to from Germany. Results have been reasonable and they are in the right half of the draw so I expect them to go a long way. But at the final push, they might find a Spain or Italy have too much in a one-off game. Miroslav Klose is proven at this level and for a promising younger player like Bastian Schweinsteiger, this is the stage where he has to prove himself as a great player, rather than merely a good one. The way Germany play with their attacking full-backs like Philipp Lahm will be good for the tournament so from that point of view, I hope they go well.

A lot of English eyes will be on Croatia. They knocked us out and we are up against them in the next World Cup qualifying group. Croatia are going to miss Eduardo because penalty-box finishers are hard to find these days. We know Croatia have good players who are comfortable with the ball, and their coach Slaven Bilic not only speaks well, his team deserved to beat England twice in qualifying. I think Niko Kranjcar and Luka Modric are excellent players and I’m not sure about the theory that no Croatian players could get in the England team. I think that’s the old problem where we think we have a divine right to beat anyone. I’d expect Croatia to get through with Germany and if Bilic wants to come to the Premier League after, I see no reason why he wouldn’t get offers.

Hosts Austria aren’t fancied to do very much even in their own country. Usually the home sides manage to find a way of getting through the qualifying group but I can’t see that happening here.

Poland is a passionate football country but I’m not sure this current team has the outfield players to rank alongside past greats like Grzegorz Lato or Zbigniew Boniek, although their goalkeeper Artur Boruc is rated as top-notch.

Group C is a real feast, with the two World Cup finalists plus Holland. That’s going to be extremely competitive. I know France and Italy played each other in qualifying but there will still be some needle left over from the last World Cup, particularly after the clash between Zinedine Zidane and Marco Materazzi.

France still have some of the old stalwarts like Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira but there is also a new generation coming through. Franck Ribery is the big hope. I thought he had an average World Cup after all the hype about him but he’s had an excellent season for Bayern Munich and this could be his stage.

The French also have goalscorers in their team. Henry has been lightly-used at Barcelona and might be fresher than players who have played 60 games this season. The same principle applies to the Dutch striker Robin van Persie as well.

Holland also has a new generation with Wesley Sneijder coming into the tournament celebrating a La Liga title with Real Madrid. But once again the Dutch will suffer in comparisons with the team of Johan Cruyff or the Euro 1988 winners inspired by Ruud Gullit, Marco van Bastern and Frank Rijkaard.

It’s very unusual for World Cup winners to then win the next Euros, but I wouldn’t write off Italy because they always find a way to win or get through tight situations. Even at the World Cup, they didn’t look convincing against teams like Australia but while Argentina were the prettiest team of the tournament, Italy emerged with the trophy. They still have that nucleus in midfield with Rino Gatusso, Andrea Pirlo, Alessandro Nesta and Fabio Cannavaro that will make them so hard to beat. I also rate Luca Toni. Although he didn’t light up the World Cup, I saw enough in his movement and strength to see how he can score goals.

Romania couldn’t have got a tougher draw and will be seen as makeweights in the group. It will be interesting to see how Adrian Mutu plays. His career seems to have revived after his sad time at Chelsea.

I’ve explained earlier why I fancy Spain not only to win Group D but to go all the way. But the race for second spot in Group D between Sweden, Greece and Russia could be the tightest of the whole tournament.

Spain have got the best squad in the tournament and possibly the most eccentric manager in Luis Aragones. I hope he handles the pressure. He was my manager at Barcelona between Terry Venables and Johan Cruyff and I remember him bursting into tears during his team-talk before a game against Real Zaragoza. He was putting his team up on the wall and suddenly drew a big squiggle and had this sort of breakdown. He went away for a few weeks but when he came back, we won the Spanish Cup and he has obviously bounced back to have a very good career. I remember he is also very much a players’ man, a bit like Alf Ramsey was meant to be. If there was pressure from fans, directors, media, he would always look after the players and that wins him respect from them.

His biggest problem might be team selection and making sure Torres and Fabregas aren’t burned out after a long season in the Premier League.

I can’t see lightning striking twice and Greece defending the trophy they surprisingly won in 2004 but they have the same manager in Otto Rehhagel and a lot of the same players, so they will be competitive. It was good to see a less fashionable football nation win a major tournament, it gives everyone the sense they have a chance, but the way they won it was a bit dour. I would like to see a side that really expresses themselves come out on top this time.

Sweden always seem to be in the mix at major tournaments and I’m hoping to see Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally live up to his big reputation. They love him in Serie A but every time I’ve seen him in a major international tournament, he’s disappointed me. So let’s see you perform, Zlatan!

Russia’s main asset is their coach Guus Hiddink. I doubt there is a more tactically astute coach in the whole tournament. But not even the greatest coach can win trophies with limited players, so I think maybe Russia won’t be good enough to join Spain in the quarter-finals.


Pictures PA Photos & BBC


First Published in The definitive guide to the 2008 European Championship with Gary Lineker,
June 2008

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